Doomsayers and Their Negativity
Something is always dying, something is always ending, and only by following the opinions of this particular person can you survive!!!!!
So why this conversation?
A few months ago an aquantaince of mine, who works for probably the largest cloud service provider, made a post on LinkedIn on how annoying it can be to have "thought leaders" making hot takes on subjects they know nothing about. This tied with the number posts I see daily about how "Java is dying!" and "AI is coming for your job!", it kind harmonized with me, and I felt I needed to get this out of my head. I also ran a poll on Mastodon on what should be my next blog topic, and there was one single vote and they voted for this.
"Thought Leaders" want you to think they are experts
So we need to first define what is a "Thought Leader"? The Wikipedia page on Thought Leader describes them as "people or firms that are recognized as a foremost authority in a specific field.", and as the term implies, "the thought leader leads others in the thinking on a given topic." Of course the problem to this is how do you become recognized as a foremost authority? It's not like there is an official organization that hands out certificates about you being an expert, and if there were, who is going to confirm that it is valid. This opens the opportunity for anyone who wants to get noticed to simply post articles about things that they may have knowledge of, but are likely not experts. A "Thought Leader" is basically an influencer, just geared towards business, and tech than with clothes and lifestyle. In the mentioned Wikipedia page in the subsection Criticism of the phrase and concept brings up the option that it is nothing more than business jargon.
I'm not saying that ever person who are thought leaders are not experts, but the majority of them that we see posting on sites like LinkedIn are not, and are using their hot takes, and thoughts on things as a way to push their brand, or highlight themselves to further their career. I would postulate that in many cases these thoughts that they are promoting are simply what they would like to see happen, and many times it is what is currently the major topic. Earlier it was cryptocoin, then NFT, and now it is AI. These are often people, likely young men who have invested greatly in these technologies and would like to see wider adoption simply to make gains in their portfolio. I mean, I get it, they want to make money and make a name for themselves, but honestly it's just simply annoying. From what I've seen many of these technologies that they have been pushing are either still fairly niche, or were complete failures.
"Thought Leaders" often are "Doomsayers"
I would say that my biggest issue with these so called "thought leaders" is that they often tend to be Doomsayers, people who report that something is dying, or that such and such is the wrong path to take, although if they did their research they would see how wrong they are actually wrong. I cannot count the number of times I've seen, and have been told that Java is dying. No one is using Java any more, and it's old technology.
The other big target are these Doomsayers talking about how AI is coming for our jobs. While I can agree that AI is something that we have to contend with, the likelihood that it will take over 100% of code writing in all languages is doubtful. It is also a question on how long these large companies can keep spending the billions of dollars hoping that if they keep stuffing AI into everything people will start using it more. If they cannot convince that AI is making people's live better and easier then it'll be nothing more than better grammar checker. Now personally I don't really feel the threat of AI at this point. I do realize that if it continues to improve then there may come a time that these prophecies could come true. Though it is likely that I will be retired by that point and so it will be moot for me.
But wait, aren't you doing the same thing by writing this blog?
So am I trying to be a Doomsayer or Thought Leader since I obviously post these thoughts in my blog and share it with people on LinkedIn and other socials? I'd say no I'm not. As I mentioned in my Hello World post, I'm just getting these obtrusive thoughts out of my head so I can focus on more important things. I do not expect people to take to heart what I write. My hope is that people learn to think for themselves and ignore those who want to lead their thinking.
Summary
So to sum things up, maybe before jumping onto a specific thought train, and allowing someone to tell you what to think, do some research, look into the topics first. Maybe look into the background of the person who is trying to be a thought leader and see their motivation behind these thoughts. Don't simply take someone for an expert without actually knowing what what makes them an expert.